2023 Kentucky Oaks Betting Odds at Churchill Downs racecourse

Friday, 05 May 2023

The 2023 Kentucky Oaks is one of the biggest thoroughbred horse races in the US racing calendar, with the fillies competing over one and an eighth mile for the chance to etch their name into Churchill Downs folklore. Wet Paint is regarded as the horse to beat although her odds imply that it’s an open race and it could be an open encounter.

Botanical is another talented mare who merits respect and we’re anticipating a relatively big field, with Affirmative Lady a good potential each-way wager. Southlawn and Pretty Mischievous are the other contenders who are worth a closer look and there is sure to be millions of bets being placed on the female equivalent to the Kentucky Derby.

2023 Kentucky Oaks Tips

Wet Paint has landed a consecutive hat-trick of wins leading up to the Kentucky Oaks, with three successive wins at Oaklawn Park in 2023 marking her out for potential greatness. The latest victory came in the Fantasy Stakes on 1 April which was a Grade 3 success, with that coming by two and a half lengths, while this came a few weeks after a win in the Honeybee Stakes.

The Brad H Cox-trained charge landed a three-length win on sloppy ground thanks to Flavien Prat being on board, with the first win at Oaklawn Park coming in the Martha Washington Stakes and the horse is capable of further improvement which might make her the horse to beat although there’s plenty of competition.

Brad H Cox also saddles the second favourite and there was a huge win at Turfway Park at the beginning of December, with the three-year-old claiming a victory by the margin of eleven lengths and Chris Landeros gave the horse a tremendous spin to claim a win. It will be interesting to see the race tactics that are deployed when it comes to the first two in the market.

Affirmative Lady and Southlawn come next in the betting and the former has been successful at Gulfstream Park on two occasions in 2023. The most recent outing was in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on 1 April where the runner claimed a two-length win over Sacred Wish and there could be more to come from a filly that won a Maiden Special Weight.

Kentucky Oaks Tips

There is an enormous purse of $1.25 million in the offing when it comes to the Kentucky Oaks, with $750,000 available to the winning connections. It will be interesting to see which horse claims the Lillies for the Fillies when it comes to the 2022 renewal, with many people regarding Echo Zulu as the most likely winner.

Echo Zulu was sent off as the 1/10 favourite to win the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds on 26 March 2022, although the three-year-old made heavy weather of obliging at huge odds-on. Hidden Connection was beaten into second by just a nose and the former might need to improve on that performance here.

Previously to this, Joel Rosario rode the horse to victory in the NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar, with the Kentucky Oaks betting favourite having been sent off at racing betting odds of 4/5 on that occasion. What was especially impressive about this performance was the fact that the horse made all the running and triumphed by over five furlongs in the final reckoning.

Indeed, we are talking about a three-year-old who has racked up five wins on the bounce and there was a Grade 1 win in the Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park in early October. That was a high quality race and there was also a victory in the Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga.

However, Nest is clearly a horse not to be underestimated and this is a Todd Pletcher-trained charge that could make a big impact in the race. The filly has won on her past three starts and the latest victory came when landing a convincing victory in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes which has seen her odds shorten.

It was a perfect run on that occasion, with Nest tracking the leaders before attacking the front from two furlongs out and the horse found plenty in this Grade 1 affair at Keeneland. A victory by over eight lengths was no mean feat and that came after a win in a February race at Tampa Bay Downs, with Irad Ortiz Jnr set to get the ride once again.

2020 Kentucky Oaks Predictions and Tips

We have three horses trading at a roughly similar price to win the Kentucky Oaks and you can see why VENETIAN HARBOR is among the favourites. The runner is due to make a final prep run in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse on 4 April before taking her chances in the big race at Churchill Downs. The filly was thoroughly impressive when winning a maiden at Santa Anita in December, with Venetian Harbor romping home by over ten lengths in the race.

Nevertheless, she’ll have some stiff competition and that includes TONALIST’S SHAPE who will also arrive for the Kentucky Oaks with impressive form which suggests that this could be the horse to beat. On 29 February, the horse booked her place in the big race by remaining undefeated by winning the $200,000 Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park. It has now been five consecutive wins including three straight victories in graded company.

FINITE is another horse that could be duking it out at the top of the market and she’s another runner that has barely put a foot wrong on dirt this season, with Ron Winchell, Thomas Reiman, William Dickson and Deborah Easter's charge having landed consecutive victories on the Fair Grounds trail, defeating the 2019 champion juvenile filly British Idiom in the process.

Speaking of BRITISH IDIOM, she clearly has improvement to find in order to win the Kentucky Oaks, although she was champion in the juvenile rankings last season and potentially did need the last race in order to prepare properly for Churchill Downs. Jockey Javier Castellano claims that the horse can frank the form when it comes to the May showdown.

SPICE IS NICE finished second to Tonalist’s Shape in the Davona Dale and the connections will draw confidence that the defeat was less than two lengths, with the horse being the first foal out of Grade 1 winner Dame Dorothy and there was plenty to like about her debut on 12 January.

Can Anyone Stop Gamine Winning 2020 Oaks?

Legendary trainer Bob Baffert has an incredible strike rate when it comes to the American classic races and he looks to have a jewel in the form of Gamine who has shone this season when the opportunities have arisen.

The three-year-old was actually disqualified on her first outing at Oaklawn Park, although there have been subsequent victories at Belmont Park and Saratoga, with the latest win being a seven-length triumph over seven furlongs with a Grade 1 victory in the Longines Test Stakes.

Nevertheless, this is hardly a horse with a long track record of excellent performances and there will be plenty of viable contenders lining up for this race, with Swiss Skydiver trading as short as 2/1 to claim the spoils and there will be plenty of punters backing this horse instead.

The three-year-old has heaps more experience than Gamine, with Kenneth McPeak already training her to several successes and the first took place at Churchill Downs last November when we saw Swiss Skydiver claim a Maiden Special Weight race victory.

Since then, there have been wins at Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita and Saratoga, with the horse regularly winning at the distance that the 2020 Oaks will be run over.

Which Horses Can Also Win the Kentucky Oaks 2020?

Speech is the other American horse that has been impressive and has been priced up by all the bookies at single figure odds. This filly finished second to Swiss Skydiver at Santa Anita in June, with the horse finishing four lengths behind the eventual winner and trainer Michael McCarthy would really need his horse to produce something special this time around.

Bonny South is another horse worth a second glance, with the runner finishing second behind Swiss Skydiver at Saratoga in August, having previously run at Keeneland and finishing well down the pecking order in a race that was won by Speech.

Kentucky Oaks Betting Odds

The bookies are finding it hard to split the first three in the betting, with William Hill making Venetian Harbor and Tonalist’s Shape the 4/1 joint-favourites, although Finite is a bigger 6/1 with the same bookmaker and perhaps that is the profitable each-way bet.

British Idiom has drifted in the market to 7/1 and everything else can be backed at a double figure price, with Donna Veloce available at odds of 10/1. Spice Is Nice and Harvey’s Lil Goil are trading at odds of 12/1.

How to Bet on the Kentucky Oaks

The Kentucky Oaks is a historic race spanning back to 1875 when Vinaigrette was the first ever winner of the encounter, with big crowds always descending on Churchill Downs to witness some of the best three-year-old fillies in the United States of America.

We’ve seen trainer Bob Baffert triumph three times in previous years, with the famous American landing the spoils with Abel Tasman in 2017, while there were also successes on Plum Pretty (2011) and Silverbulletday back in 1999.

There is the choice to either bet win only on the race or alternatively bet each-way, while there are a number of alternative wagers and it might be possible to bet on place only.

With the race taking place over 1 1/8 mile, this is a truer test of speed than stamina, with Bird Town holding the speed record over this distance with 1:48:64.

The 2019 race winner was Serengeti Empress who was trained by Tom Amoss, with jockey Jose Ortiz experiencing victory in this race for the first time. She was able to beat Liora and Lady Apple into second and third place respectively, although the winner actually drifted on the morning of the race.

After an opening show of 8/1, there was a distinct lack of punter confidence in the horse who drifted out to 13/1, although a crowd of over 100,000 people saw her win despite the fact that the build-up to the race had seen her bleeding.

The History of the Kentucky Oaks

As mentioned, Bob Baffert has been successful in the Kentucky Oaks before, with the American having landed victories with horses such as Abel Tasman in 2017 and Plum Pretty in 2011.

The race initially took place in 1875 and is one of the most historic races in the history of United States of America horse racing, with the distance now 1 and 1/8 miles, with this being a feat of speed and stamina on a familiar Churchill Downs track in Kentucky.

Unfortunately, there won’t be any spectators in attendance for the latest renewal of the Kentucky Oaks 2020, with this previously attracting crowds of over 100,000, although we should still expect lots of Kentucky Oaks betting odds and interest.